The Great Housing Market Debate
From our roving reporter - Malcolm McCallion
Put two housing market specialists into a room and they’ll argue bitterly about what’s happening to house prices and where transaction volumes are headed. Put four on a stage, populate the audience with similarly knowledgeable agitators, then sit back and watch the sparks fly … or at least that’s what you’d have thought. Yesterday, however, it didn’t quite turn out like that.
Martin Ellis, Chief Economist and ubiquitous housing market commentator for Halifax/Bank of Scotland was joined on the stage by Jim Pickard, bearish property correspondent of the Financial Times, Jim Cunningham of the Council of Mortgage Lenders and Richard Donnell, erstwhile Savills’ market guru who recently moved to Hometrack as Research Director. The meeting, called “The Great Housing Market Debate” and watched by the great and good of the UK property industry, was a fascinating insight into what the people who know are really saying is going to happen to the housing market, without the media’s screaming headlines.
Each had 15 minutes to pitch their case. Ellis, quoting liberally from his Halifax Price Index, said things were looking fine in general and were going be pretty steady in future. Pickard, who called the recent boom a “bubble” at every opportunity and was good value for his angry young man billing, said things weren’t all that great but there was still every chance that they were going to be pretty steady in future.
Cunningham, pulling lending data from the last two years and projecting two years hence, said things were not too bad and were going to be pretty steady in future. Not to be outdone, Donnell’s angle was that a headline rate disguised a multitude of regional issues but overall things seemed that they were going to be pretty steady in future.
What does this tell us about property market foretelling? That it’s not as much fun as it used to be, certainly. But also that the doomsayers and the cheerleaders have both had to accept that there’s not a whole lot of argument right now. This isn’t going to make you rush home from work to catch the news or dive into a newsagents and grab the latest edition but if there was a headline which captured the consensus on what’s going to happen going forwards you’d read:
Housing market “going to be pretty steady” say experts
You heard it here first.


